Sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have now surpassed levels recorded during any previous El Niño event, Britain’s Met Office says — with several weeks still to go before this one peaks.
The statement was carried by the Daily Mirror on Tuesday. It moves the event from forecast to observation: the Met Office had said in August that this El Niño could be the strongest in living memory. It is now reporting that the record has been broken.
“We have been signalling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event. The fact that it has already exceeded previous records — with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year — shows the enormity of this El Niño.”
— Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Prediction, Met Office
Scaife added that scientists are still assessing whether the impacts will be in proportion to the magnitude, but that expected effects are already being seen worldwide.
Why more record announcements are likely to follow
The Met Office is explicit that “record broken” is not a single moment. Strength is measured several ways, and the thresholds are passed at different times.
The standard measure is the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), based on sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region — the stretch of equatorial Pacific midway between South America and Australia.
Newer work favours the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which measures how warm Niño 3.4 is relative to the rest of the tropical oceans rather than against a long-term historical average. In a warming climate, the Met Office notes, rising background ocean temperatures can mask or amplify parts of the El Niño signal — which is what RONI is designed to correct for.
Scientists also watch atmospheric pressure patterns, trade wind strength and subsurface ocean temperatures. Because the metrics differ, the Met Office expects further announcements as more thresholds are passed.
Effects already visible
The Met Office points to two global signals consistent with the developing event:
- The Indian summer monsoon has been running below normal this year.
- No Atlantic hurricanes have formed so far this year — El Niño increases wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses hurricane development.
Southern Africa may face increased drought risk as the event strengthens. Regions that typically see reduced rainfall during El Niño include parts of Central and northern South America, the western Pacific, and areas under the Indian summer monsoon.
What it means here
Sri Lanka sits inside the monsoon system the Met Office names as already running below normal, and the island has been managing El Niño consequences for months — from drought and reservoir levels to the Met Department’s warning this week that October and November could be worse than usual for strong winds and landslides because of it.
The Met Office statement adds no Sri Lanka-specific forecast. What it changes is the magnitude assumption underneath the local planning: the event the island is preparing for is no longer forecast to be unprecedented — it already is, and it has not peaked.
Not reported
The Daily Mirror’s relay gives no numerical value for the current anomaly, no date for the record being passed, and no forecast peak figure or date beyond “later this year.” It does not say which index was used to declare the record, or against which previous event — 1997-98 or 2015-16 — the comparison is drawn.
