Update — Murasu reaches severe cyclonic storm strength; warning box narrows
Murasu has now intensified into a severe cyclonic storm, the strength earlier bulletins only forecast, and the Met Department’s new fix puts it markedly further north — close enough to the Indian coast for landfall overnight.
The storm was centred near latitude 14.1°N and longitude 81.4°E at 8.30 a.m. on Monday 2 November, over the west-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal, the Daily Mirror reported. It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast between midnight on Monday and the early hours of Tuesday 3 November — the same landfall window given since Sunday.
That fix confirms the track. Sunday’s 11.30 a.m. position was 12.1°N, 85.3°E; the Sunday-night position worked out to roughly 12.9°N, 83.2°E. At 14.1°N, 81.4°E the system has continued west-northwest and then begun its turn north, exactly as forecast.
The warning box has narrowed on its eastern edge. Naval and fishing communities are now told to avoid deep-sea areas bounded by 10°N–17°N and 80°E–85°E until further notice — the same latitude band as Monday’s earlier bulletin, but with the eastern boundary pulled in from 90°E to 85°E. That is consistent with the storm having moved west out of the eastern half of the box. Anyone already working in the area has again been told to move to safer locations. The separate warning against venturing into deep-sea areas from Mannar to Trincomalee via Kankesanthurai remains in force.
Winds around the island
The department expects showers or thundershowers at several places in the seas around Sri Lanka, with south-westerly or southerly winds of 25–35 kmph, rising to 40–45 kmph in the sea areas from Chilaw to Trincomalee via Mannar and Kankesanthurai. Those seas may be fairly rough at times; the rest remain moderate. During thundershowers, temporarily strong gusts of 60–70 kmph and very rough seas are possible.
These figures are not directly comparable with the 70–80 kmph given in Sunday’s red warning. That figure described sustained winds inside the deep-ocean warning box; these describe conditions and squall gusts in the seas around the island.
Update — Monday evening: rainfall warning raised to 75 mm, small boats told to stay ashore
The Met Department has raised its rainfall warning from above 50 mm to above 75 mm, and the Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources has told small-craft fishermen along the entire northwestern and northern coast to stay out of the sea until further notice.
Showers or thundershowers exceeding 75 mm are now likely at some places in the North-Central, North-Western, Central, Uva, Sabaragamuwa and Southern provinces and the Trincomalee district, the Daily Mirror reported. Showers may also occur in the Southern Province and the Ampara district during the morning.
The public has been urged to take precautions against temporary localised strong winds and lightning. Misty conditions are again expected early in the day in the Sabaragamuwa, Central and Uva provinces.
That is an escalation on two axes in a single day. The threshold has gone from 50 mm to 75 mm, and the warned area has widened from three provinces plus two districts to six provinces plus one district — picking up the North-Western, Uva and Southern provinces, which were not in Monday’s earlier bulletin.
A second agency, and a different stretch of coast
Separately, fishermen using small craft have been told not to put to sea from Kalpitiya to Mannar, Kilinochchi, Jaffna, and through Mullaitivu to Trincomalee, until further notice, because of Murasu. The instruction came from the Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, Hiru News reported.
This is a different warning from the Met Department’s, and it is worth separating. The Met’s red warning covers a block of deep ocean east of the island, plus deep and shallow seas on the Mannar–Kankesanthurai–Trincomalee stretch. The fisheries advisory is aimed at small boats working close inshore, and it extends the affected coastline westwards and southwards to Kalpitiya, on the northwestern coast, which the Met’s sea-area warning does not reach.
Update — Monday 2 November: warning zone widened, landfall expected tonight
The Met Department’s latest bulletin, issued on Monday, places Cyclone Murasu about 480 km northeast of Kankesanthurai as at 11.30 p.m. on Sunday, and says it is expected to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm within the next few hours.
Landfall is still expected on the south Andhra Pradesh coast of India between midnight tonight and the early hours of Tuesday 3 November — unchanged from Sunday’s forecast, according to Hiru News.
Two things have changed for Sri Lankan seafarers:
- The warning box has been widened northwards, from 10°N–15°N to 10°N–17°N, still between 80°E and 90°E. Fishing and naval activity in that area is to stop until further notice.
- The warning on the Mannar–Kankesanthurai–Trincomalee stretch now covers both deep and shallow seas, and anyone already at sea there has been told to move to safe locations immediately.
The new position fix is consistent with the forecast track. Sunday’s 11.30 a.m. fix put the storm at 12.1°N, 85.3°E; a point 480 km northeast of Kankesanthurai works out to roughly 12.9°N, 83.2°E — west-northwest of where it was twelve hours earlier, which is the direction the Met Department said it would take.
Rain on land today
A separate bulletin for Monday forecasts showers or thundershowers in most parts of the island after 1.00 p.m., with fairly heavy falls above 50 mm at some places in the Sabaragamuwa, Central and North-Central provinces and in the Trincomalee and Mullaitivu districts, Hiru News reported. Rain is also possible in the Western and Southern provinces in the morning, and misty conditions are expected early in the day in Sabaragamuwa, Central and Uva provinces and in the Kurunegala and Anuradhapura districts.
The Met Department does not attribute the land rainfall to Murasu specifically.
The deep depression over the Southeast Bay of Bengal has intensified into a cyclonic storm named Murasu, and the Department of Meteorology has issued a red warning for strong winds and rough seas covering a large block of ocean east of Sri Lanka.
The warning was issued by the Natural Hazards Early Warning Centre at 3.00 p.m. on Sunday and is valid for the next 24 hours, Hiru News reported. Naval personnel and fishing communities have been told not to venture into sea areas bounded by 10°N–15°N and 80°E–90°E until further notice.
Where the storm is and where it is going
Cyclone Murasu was centred near latitude 12.1°N and longitude 85.3°E at around 11.30 a.m. on 1 November, the Daily Mirror reported.
The system is expected to move west-northwestwards and strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm over the West-Central Bay of Bengal by Monday morning. It is then likely to turn northwestwards and cross the Andhra Pradesh coast in India as a severe cyclonic storm between midnight on 2 November and the early hours of 3 November.
Wind speeds in the warning area may reach 70–80 kmph at times, with heavy thundershowers. Sea conditions along the coastal belt from Mannar to Trincomalee via Kankesanthurai are also expected to become very rough. Hiru reports the warning covers both multi-day boats operating in the deep Bay of Bengal and the deep-sea areas off that northern coastline.
Boats already working in the affected waters have been told to move to safer locations without delay.
This is the second named storm in nine days
Murasu is the system our earlier reporting described as a developing depression expected to reach severe cyclonic storm strength by 2 November. It now has a name and a red warning attached to it.
It is not Cyclone Arnab, which made landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast in late October. The Disaster Management Centre’s running count of damage from Arnab and the unsettled weather around it stands at six dead and 21,356 affected across 19 districts. Those totals describe damage already done and do not include anything from Murasu.
As with Arnab, the forecast track takes Murasu towards the Indian coast rather than across Sri Lanka. The hazard to the island on this forecast is to shipping and fishing in the warning box and to the seas off the north and east, not a landfall.
Not reported
Neither filing gives an expected wave height for the warning area, states how many Sri Lankan multi-day boats are currently working inside the box, or says whether any have been ordered back to port. Neither gives a land-area rainfall forecast tied to Murasu specifically, and neither says when the next bulletin is due.
