The atmospheric disturbance forming over the south-east Bay of Bengal could bring heavy rain to Sri Lanka’s eastern region from 15 November and may strengthen into a depression, Department of Meteorology Director General Ajith Wijemanne said on Wednesday — the first time the department has put its own name and a stated Sri Lankan impact to a system it has been tracking for four days.
Wijemanne told the Daily Mirror that the department does not yet have much detail on the disturbance and would issue notices in the coming days. He attributed current conditions to the second inter-monsoon period and to El Niño effects.
Hiru News reported at 1.27 p.m. that the department sees a strong likelihood the low-pressure area will become a deep depression and move northwards parallel to the east coast.
Why the track matters
That is the single most consequential new detail. This desk reported on 10 November that a system forming in the south-east Bay and tracking north-west would move away from Sri Lanka’s latitude, which was why the advisory then addressed deep-sea boats rather than the coast. A system running north parallel to the east coast does the opposite: it stays close to the island for longer, which is consistent with Wijemanne’s warning about the east.
The dates now line up
Three filings in three days gave three dates — 11, 13 and 15 November — and this desk flagged the sequence as unsettled. Wednesday’s filings suggest the figures describe different stages rather than competing forecasts: formation around 13 November, effects on Sri Lanka from about the 15th. No filing says so explicitly, and that reading should be treated as provisional.
Not a forecast for today’s rain
Wednesday’s heavy rain is a separate matter. The department warned the same morning of more than 100mm across five provinces, and that rain has already split a road at Gampola and pushed Kotmale’s spill gates open. The depression is a forecast about next week.
Alongside the forecast, the department advised against driving through heavy showers, urged that outdoor sport, construction, farming and recreation stop during thunderstorms, and told residents of vulnerable areas to prepare for possible evacuation while following National Building Research Organisation and Irrigation Department warnings.
Update, 12 November: the rain geography has moved
A second Met Department official has since described the same system differently, and no filing reconciles the two accounts.
Merril Mendis, Director of Forecasting, said on Thursday that the disturbance is expected to deepen into a depression travelling parallel to the east coast — the same track Director General Wijemanne gave — but placed the heavy rain in the Western, North Central, Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces after 13 November, rather than in the east from the 15th. Those are provinces on the opposite side of the island, and the date is two days earlier. See our report on the NBRO landslide warnings, which carries his remarks in full.
The two statements are not necessarily in conflict — a system tracking north along the east coast could bring rain to both flanks on different days — but neither official addresses the other’s geography, and the Thursday account does not repeat the 15 November date for the east. Treat the claim in this article as the position as of 11 November.
Not reported
Neither filing gives a rainfall figure for the east, a wind speed, a sea-state category, or a warning tier. Neither names the districts inside “the eastern region”, says whether the system could make landfall, or sets a validity window. The El Niño attribution is stated without supporting data, and no filing explains how it squares with the second inter-monsoon.