Sri Lanka is facing what forecasters say could be its most powerful El Niño in three-quarters of a century, and the government has brought the Maha cultivation season forward by about two weeks in response.
The Department of Meteorology puts the odds of the event becoming “very strong” by the end of 2026 at more than 90%, Ada Derana reported, with a roughly 70% probability it proves stronger than any El Niño recorded since 1950. Director General Ajith Wijemanna said it is strengthening gradually.
Pacific warming to peak in November
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology puts sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific currently around 2.2°C above average, rising to as much as 3.6°C at the expected November peak, according to NewsFirst. An event of that strength has rarely been seen in the past century.
A mixed, not uniformly dry, outlook
Wijemanna cautioned against reading that as unbroken drought. “We do not expect continuous drought, nor do we expect continuous rainfall,” he told NewsFirst. He expects little rain in early September, then showers late in the month, followed by above-normal rainfall in October and November that may run into early January, heaviest in the north, east and North Central province.
Planting moved earlier to beat November floods
Agriculture, Livestock, Lands and Irrigation Minister K.D. Lal Kantha said Maha has been advanced by around two weeks, with water releases and fertiliser distribution starting earlier to match. Planting should begin across most major irrigation schemes in early October.
“Forecasts suggest there could be flood conditions around November,” he said. “If paddy crops have already reached a reasonable stage of growth by then, they will be better able to withstand such conditions.”
Reservoirs and power
The outlets differ slightly on storage: NewsFirst put reservoir levels at 39%, above the 32% normally needed to start Maha, while the Department of Irrigation told Ada Derana its 74 major reservoirs hold about 37%.
Energy Minister Anura Karunathilaka separately warned that El Niño could affect electricity generation in late March and the first two weeks of April next year, according to Ada Derana. He said a battery storage programme should add 160 megawatts to the grid before December.
The dry weather has already affected 70,828 people, emptied small tanks across the dry zone and prompted a Cabinet sub-committee review.
