The Department of Meteorology has ordered fishing and naval activity to stop across a large block of sea off Sri Lanka’s north and east from 5.30am on Saturday, 14 November, saying the Bay of Bengal disturbance it has tracked for a week has now formed into a low pressure area and could become a cyclone by Monday.
The department said in a statement on Friday evening that a low pressure area has developed over the south-east Bay of Bengal, Hiru News reported.
The forecast track
The system is moving north-west and is most likely to strengthen into a depression by around 15 November, the department said. Continuing north-west with a northward bias after that, it could develop into a cyclone by around 16 November, near the central Bay of Bengal.
That is the first time in this sequence of advisories that the department has used the word cyclone for this system.
Where the ban applies
From 5.30am on 14 November and until further notice, fishermen and mariners have been told to stay out of:
- sea areas between latitudes 5°N and 15°N and longitudes 80°E and 90°E; and
- sea areas off the coast from Kankesanthurai to Trincomalee, and from Trincomalee through Pottuvil to Hambantota.
That second block covers the whole northern and eastern seaboard and wraps around the south-east coast as far as Hambantota.
Communities already working in those waters have been told to sail to safe areas, and the department asked fishing and maritime communities to watch for its further forecasts and announcements.
What this changes
This is the first operational restriction the department has issued on this system. Its earlier filings were forecasts of what might happen: Director General Ajith Wijemanne said on 11 November that the disturbance could deepen and track north along the east coast, bringing heavy rain to the east from 15 November, while Director of Forecasting Merril Mendis placed the rain on the western flank of the island after the 13th. A marine warning with a start time and a mapped sea area is a different kind of product, and it does not depend on which of those rain forecasts proves right.
The formation itself matches the timetable the department gave earlier in the week, which pointed to a system forming around 13 November.
Not reported
The statement gives no wind speed, no sea-state category and no warning tier, and does not name a prospective cyclone. It does not say whether the system could approach or make landfall on Sri Lanka, does not estimate how long the ban will last, and carries no rainfall forecast for land. No figure is given for how many boats or fishermen are affected.
Sourcing note
This advisory was carried by Hiru News on Friday evening. A sweep of the Daily Mirror breaking and business rails, the NewsFirst homepage payload and the EconomyNext rail at the time of writing found no second filing of it — the warning was issued at about 6.30pm Colombo time, late in the newsroom day. This article will be updated when other newsrooms carry it.